Facing Concerns About a Potential Economic Recession in the US, On August 5, 2024, global stock markets, particularly in Asia, witnessed a massive sell-off during the “worst day ever." Japan and South Korea were the most notable markets affected. Let's highlight some key points with Virtus:
Japanese Stock Market
On August 5, 2024, the Topix index dropped significantly by 13% in the worst trading day since 1987, falling nearly 25% from its peak just a month ago. The Nikkei index closed down 12.4% at 31,458.42 points. In percentage terms, this was the second-largest drop since the "Black Monday" crash in October 1987, when the index lost 3,836.48 points, equivalent to 14.9%. Meanwhile, the Yen has been recovering strongly, up 12% from less than a month ago when it was at its lowest level in 37 years. The reasons include:
1. Policy Changes:
Over the past 18 months, the Yen has weakened sharply as the Federal Reserve announced interest rate hikes (currently at 5.5%), while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained low interest rates of -0.1% for over seven years.
This encouraged carry trade activities, where investors borrowed cheaply in Yen to invest in higher-yielding USD or Euro assets, further weakening the Yen. A weak Yen boosted overseas profits for Japanese companies and attracted foreign investors to the Japanese stock market. In 2023 and the first half of 2024, foreign investors bought a net 9 trillion Yen (60 billion USD) in Japanese stocks.
However, in the first half of 2024, BOJ raised interest rates from around -0.1% to about 0.25%. Conversely, the Fed is expected to begin lowering interest rates in the second half of 2024, following a US jobs report on August 2 showing only 114,000 new jobs in July, below the 175,000 expected by investors.
2. High Margin Debt:
On the Japanese stock market, margin trading, where transactions are made with borrowed money, reached its highest level since 2006 before the sell-off. These leveraged investments are now being quickly reduced.
Consequences:
A weak Yen led to the collapse of the Japanese stock market. Shares of Tokyo Electron, a key semiconductor equipment supplier, fell 18% on August 5. Major Japanese banks also saw sharp declines, with Mizuho Financial Group down 19.7%, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group down 17.8%, Resona Holdings down 19.5%, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group down 15.5%.
Risks to past loans and bonds with low interest rates of 0.1%-0.5%. For example, organizations like Berkshire Hathaway borrowed over 4 billion USD, Goldman Sachs 3.3 billion USD, and JPMorgan Chase 2.82 billion USD in JPY.
Japanese exporters, who benefited from a weak Yen as they generated most of their revenue abroad but reported earnings in Yen, are now facing difficulties.
South Korean Stock Market
On August 5, the KOSPI closed at 2441.55, down 234.64 points (8.77%) from the previous trading day, marking the largest drop in 16 years since October 24, 2008 (-10.57%) during the global financial crisis. The KOSDAQ also closed at 691.28, down 88.05 points (11.3%), breaking the 700 mark. The reasons include:
1. Global Recession Concerns
South Korea was affected due to its semiconductor-centric economy, with stock market growth in the first half of the year driven by leading sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. These sectors suffered heavy losses during the global downturn, raising concerns about an AI bubble.
2. Liquidation of Yen Carry Trades
Low-interest loans in Japan were invested globally, with a significant portion going to South Korea, causing a sharp market decline (foreigners sold a net 1.4205 trillion won, the largest in two years).
3. Domino Effect
Institutional investors tend to invest by global region rather than by specific country, grouping South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan as "East Asian stocks." When Japanese stock prices dropped sharply, investors sold off South Korean and Taiwanese stocks as well, causing their indices to fall.
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