In 2023, the global economy remained beset by multiple challenges and problems. Strategic competition between major countries has become increasingly fierce and comprehensive, raising geopolitical tensions; the Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved complexly; and fighting in the Middle East has harmed the global economic recovery process following the COVID-19 pandemic. Natural catastrophes, droughts, floods, and climate change have had major implications, increasing the dangers to energy security, food security, and cyber security. Although inflation has cooled down, it remains at a high level. Many major economies have maintained restrictive monetary policies and high interest rates. Trade, investment, and consumption have all decreased globally. The emergence of protectionist barriers and trade defense has impacted export and import activity in the area and globally. Many nations, including Vietnam's key trading partners, face slow growth, rising public debt, and multiple dangers. Due to these factors, total global demand is declining, directly impacting countries with a large economic openness, including Vietnam.
Vietnam's GDP is predicted to expand by 5.05% in 2023 compared to the previous year, which is only slightly higher than the 2.87% and 2.55% growth rates in 2020 and 2021 (two years affected by the COVID-19 pandemic) from 2011 to 2023.
In terms of the economic structure in 2023, the agricultural, forestry, and fishery sectors accounted for 11.96%; the industrial and construction sectors accounted for 37.12%; the service sector accounted for 42.54%; and taxes on products minus product subsidies accounted for 8.38%.
Figure 1. GDP Structure in 2023 (Source: General Statistics Office)
In terms of the use of GDP in 2023, final consumption increased by 3.52% from the previous year, contributing 41.04% to the overall growth of the economy; capital accumulation increased by 4.09%, contributing 26.64%; exports of goods and services decreased by 2.54%; imports of goods and services decreased by 4.33%; the difference between exports and imports of goods and services contributed 32.32%.
Figure 2. GDP and GDP Growth Rate of Vietnam 2011 - 2023
The scale of Vietnam's GDP in 2023 is estimated to reach 10,221.8 trillion VND, equivalent to 430 billion USD. The GDP per capita of Vietnam in 2023 is estimated to reach 101.9 million VND/person, equivalent to 4,284.5 USD, an increase of 160 USD from 2022. The labor productivity of the whole economy in 2023 at current prices is estimated to reach 199.3 million VND/worker (equivalent to 8,380 USD/worker, an increase of 274 USD from 2022); in terms of comparable prices, labor productivity increased by 3.65% due to the improvement in the skills of workers (the proportion of workers with degrees and certificates in 2023 is estimated to reach 27%, higher than 0.6 percentage points from 2022).
Although the GDP growth rate did not reach the initial plan of over 6%, however, looking at each quarter, we can see the efforts of Vietnam - specifically the Government in implementing policies to promote economic recovery and become a bright spot in the context of the global economy still facing many difficulties, many countries are growing low (such as Singapore (GDP +1.2%), Malaysia (GDP +3.8%)).
However, this will be a springboard for GDP growth to explode in 2024 with the expectation of maintaining the fiscal and monetary policies of 2023 and continuing expansionary monetary policy in 2024 to revive businesses, and growth for the economy.
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